December 13, 2006
Linear Relationships
Jay wrote this today:
Stats can pretty much tell you whatever you want them to tell you, but there are some linear relationships that are easily accepted. Don’t score enough points, you’ll lose; allow too many, you’ll lose, etc. But some other ones don’t always come with such clear results…or do they?
Let’s take a look at some things going on in the league and how they relate to the Raptors and their current state of disarray.
For some inexplicable reason, the Raps continue to jack 3s like it has been working. The worst part about it is that they don’t even have the rebounding (outside of Bosh…who is currently tied for 2nd in the league with 12.2 per game) to gather any missed 3s. As good ol’ Leo would say, long shot, long rebound. As I would say, long shot, long rebound, long night for the Raptors again.
Let’s look at 3 point percentages in the league. The Raps are in last with a 0.298 average, second last are the Clippers at 0.299 and then just above them are the Heat with 0.301. We all know where Toronto is in the standings (2nd last in the Titanic Division), the Clippers are playing .500 ball and the Heat are a couple of wins ahead of the Raps. Not good. I know, basketball is not as simple as to suggest that if you don’t have a good 3 percentage that you will lose games, but what I am suggesting is that if you’re losing games and you are putting up a lot of 3s with a poor percentage, you’re not helping yourself.
Even better to examine are Lenovo stats. What are those? They show +/- with regard to player combinations on the floor, or even simpler, they show how teamwork works. After last night’s games, guess which team had some great Lenovo stats? Yep, the Heat…who just happened to be playing the Raptors. The top 3 combination? Posey/Wade/Kapono with a +22. Yesterday’s top 2 combination? Posey/Kapono with a +31. Yesterday’s top individual? Kapono with a +37.
To put this into perspective, the Raptors top 3 from last night were Parker/Nesterovic/Ford with a +9. Top 2? Nesterovic/Ford with a +9. Top individual? Nesterovic with a +5.
So what to make from this quick hash of stats? Well, for starters, if you don’t have a good percentage in something, you should probably not do so much of it until you figure out what’s wrong. If you can’t shoot 3s, don’t walk down the court and take one at the start of the shot clock.
The Raptors (read: Sam) have to get this rotation sorted, because there have been some puzzling moves lately (Slokar at the end of the 3rd for 5 minutes? Given, it’s not a crucial time, but I don’t like doing that at the end of a quarter…if the other team makes a run, using the new guy as a floor mat, it deflates the team going into the tv break).
Anyway, it’s a really crude use of stats here, but just wanted to give you an idea of how they’re important.
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